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Between the United States presidential election and a world pandemic, the political climate in has been very heated.
However, college campuses are at a whole new level. Being a conservative student at American University, one of the most politically active campuses in the country, I have had to deal with some absurd situations She gave a short summary of different jobs she had throughout her career that got her to where she is today, and also answered lots of questions from chapter members.
The surveys asked each bank to report the level of reserves it would hold at the prevailing constellation of rates before taking active steps to maintain or increase its reserve balances.
Figure 5 shows total LCLoRs for foreign respondents and domestic respondents, and the extrapolated demand for the rest of the banking system. As you can see, each group has considerable demand for reserves, although this demand is still well below current reserve levels and far below the peak reserve levels reached in To connect this back to the stylized framework, in a world with perfect information and no financial market frictions, an estimate of aggregate reserve demand derived from summing and scaling the reported demand of individual institutions might correspond to a level just to the right of the steeper portion of the demand curve.
However, there are reasons why the amount of reserves a central bank needs to supply to remain in a floor system could deviate from such an estimate.
First, an estimate of demand for reserves is simply an estimate; the true amount could be higher or lower.
This scenario could occur if there are financial market frictions to redistributing reserves that result in some banks persistently holding a surplus of reserves above their LCLoR.
For example, banks now suggest that they face higher balance sheet costs to lend in federal funds, making it possible that this market would not be as efficient at redistributing reserves late in the day as it was prior to the crisis.
In practice, assessing the lowest level of reserves necessary to remain on the flat, or flatter, part of the demand curve will entail not only periodically conducting the SFOS in collaboration with the Board of Governors, but also broader monitoring and analytical efforts in order to continuously inform our assessment of the demand for reserves and reserve conditions.
Transacted rates in the federal funds market are relatively stable, and the vast majority of trades are within the target range. Additional monitoring of bank microdata also suggests that reserves are well supplied.
Since mid-March, overnight repo rates have generally traded above federal funds rates, providing an attractive investment opportunity for the Federal Home Loan Banks FHLBs that invest a portion of their liquidity portfolios in both markets.
As the dominant lenders in the federal funds market, FHLBs may have been able to negotiate higher overnight lending rates with banks that regularly use federal funds to fund non-reserve assets or meet payments, and on occasion with banks that borrow to improve their Liquidity Coverage Ratios LCR by borrowing from government sponsored enterprises.
In line with a slightly higher EFFR, the overall share of above-IOER borrowing in markets underlying the overnight bank funding rate has been growing somewhat, as shown in Figure 6 , although a large majority of activity is still transacted within a couple of basis points of IOER.
As long as these rates remain relatively stable and at modest spreads above IOER, we don't see this as indicating that reserves are not well supplied.
Indeed, an examination of daily reserve levels of individual banks shows that currently most banks remain well above their reported LCLoRs, suggesting that reserves remain ample.
In fact, some banks with surplus reserves have been redistributing these reserves by shifting the composition of their HQLA high quality liquid assets by lending in repo markets when rates are attractive, suggesting secured markets are providing a means to redistribute reserves.
If competition for reserves were to increase, we might expect to see a more meaningful day-to-day relationship between changes in the level of reserves and overnight rates.
There continues to be no discernable relationship. Our assessment of reserve demand is likely to change over time as we continue learning, and could move higher or lower based on new information from analysis of data, surveys, and outreach.
I will now look ahead and turn to how the Desk could supply reserves through open market operations to maintain an ample-reserves regime.
As the level of reserves declines, the Desk will monitor medium-term forecasts of reserves and other indicators of reserve conditions. At some point, the FOMC will decide that the system has reached a level of reserves consistent with efficient and effective implementation.
Once this determination has been made by the FOMC, the Desk will need to conduct outright purchases of Treasury securities to supply reserves in order to offset the general decline in reserves from trend growth in non-reserve liabilities and ensure that reserves remain ample.
However, the size of these purchases will likely be larger in nominal terms because the growth of non-reserve liabilities is larger.
These purchases could also be structured in size and timing to supply a sufficient amount of reserves so that normal variability in non-reserve liabilities would not require predictable repo market operations to offset the corresponding reserve level changes.
A buffer of reserves executed through Treasury purchases would diminish the need for the Desk to conduct frequent, sizable repo operations, which might be difficult to implement given reduced elasticity of primary dealer balance sheets for tri-party repo in the post-crisis era.
Let me make the discussion of the buffer more concrete by focusing on the TGA. Treasury which, similar to a checking account, allows Treasury to deposit or withdraw cash every day.
Figure 8 shows a scatterplot of weekly changes in the TGA against weekly changes in reserves over the past two years.
As the level of reserves falls, the Federal Reserve will continue to learn and enhance its thinking about an efficient approach to open market operations that could incorporate both the trend growth and transitory volatility in non-reserve liabilities to maintain the excellent interest rate control experienced with higher levels of reserves.
The size of these purchases will vary over time based upon MBS prepayments. Of course, these purchases will be altering the composition but not the overall size of the System Open Market Account portfolio and Federal Reserve balance sheet.
At least initially, the FOMC will direct the Desk to conduct these MBS reinvestment purchases across a range of Treasury maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of securities outstanding.
The Desk will provide more details on these operations in May. In conclusion, the FOMC made an important decision in January to continue to implement policy in an ample-reserves regime.
This learning is ongoing, and we expect the factors driving reserve demand to evolve over time. Looking ahead, after balance sheet runoff ends in September, average reserve levels will likely continue to gradually decline.
When the FOMC judges that reserves have reached a level consistent with efficient and effective implementation, the Desk will begin to execute gradual and mechanical purchases of Treasury securities in order to ensure that reserves remain ample.
The size of these purchases will need to be larger than similar pre-crisis operations simply because trend growth in non-reserve liabilities is larger in nominal terms, and because proceeds from maturing MBS also will be reinvested.
These are unprecedented times, so active learning and maintaining operational flexibility will continue to be core principles that guide the implementation of monetary policy.
The ample-reserves operating framework I have described today has auxiliary mechanisms, such as an ongoing process for assessing reserve demand, that allow for flexibility and adaptation for continued successful control of interest rates going forward.
Since , these two rates have been set at the same value. Ihrig, Ellen E. Meade, and Gretchen C. Weinbach Finance and Economics Discussion Series The magnitude of these non-reserve liabilities as well as the flows affecting their variability is not closely related to monetary policy decisions.
Each liability provides social benefits to the economy and plays an important role as a safe and liquid asset for the public, the banking system, the U.
Institutions satisfy their requirement by maintaining an average level of vault cash or balances in their account at a Federal Reserve Bank equal to the reserve requirement over a lagged, two-week maintenance period.
The portion of the reserve requirement that is not satisfied by vault cash is called the reserve balance requirement. The purpose of the surveys was to gather views systematically from a number of banks concerning their reserve balance management strategies and practices.
The surveys also asked about the various factors that drive this determination, how a shift in short-term interest rates would change this level, and the likelihood of choosing different liabilities to rebuild a reserve position.
The surveys are voluntary.